The odds are that Senate Democrats with their 60 seat majority will pass the bloated, deformed health care bill on Christmas Eve and give Americans an unwanted holiday gift. Then the House and Senate have to work on agreeing to and merging their two very different versions of the bill.
Democrats in Congress know very well that jamming this unpopular bill will cost them in 2010 and even 2012. Yet their leadership continue on with marching orders from the White House. Moderate Democrats who appeared to have an inkling of principles eventually greased their hands with pork and sold their constituents out, knowingly sealing the fate of their Congressional careers.
Why? Sean Trende has some ideas:
But Democrats seem to have made the collective decision that, for better or for worse, their fate lies with Barack Obama succeeding with his legislative agenda. I think this is a gross miscalculation, but it isn’t entirely irrational either. Look at it this way: If nothing gets done in the next year, the Democrats are almost certainly in deep trouble in 2010. If the bill passes and Obama’s popularity continues to sag, the Democrats are potentially (probably, in my estimation) in even deeper trouble.
Their only hope for a good outcome is that the bill passes, and Obama somehow convinces the nation over the course of the next year that it was a good thing, that unemployment declines substantially, and that his popularity rises. This isn’t particularly likely, but it is the only path that offers some hope of survival for Democrats in marginal seats. To paraphrase Obama, if Obama is unpopular, the Republicans are coming after Democrats either way. Their only hope for Obama to become popular is probably to keep passing things and hope the economy turns around. And Nelson can afford to wait until 2012 for this to happen.
So the Democrats are gambling on the president’s popularity to return along with a recovering economy. That’s quite a gamble, and some may say a stupid bet, because with the way this administration is spending and expanding government, the odds are that the American economy will continue to suffer. It’s unlikely that the jobless rate is reduced by 5% from the current 10% within an year. Getting people back to work would almost have to happen in order for any solid signs of economic rebound.
Trading principles for hope and change? Never a good idea.
